Politics & Policies: Can there be a victor?

by CLAUDE SALHANI (Editor, Middle East Times)

Replying to a column published yesterday on the precarious situation in “Middle East Democracy and Mideast headcount,” one reader made the following comment: “I would suggest that any war artificially ended before a clear victor and a clear loser emerge will reignite…. What did people think was going to happen when they forced Israel to halt its drubbing of Hezbollah two summers ago before they were done? Germany waited a couple of decades…doubtful Iran will.” In theory the writer is correct in her analysis; but as anyone who has studied theory quickly realizes, applying theory to practice is not always realistic, or necessarily the most intelligent approach.

full story

Iraq: Beginning of the end?

BY CLAUDE SALHANI

TWO separate events unfolded in Iraq last week that could signal the beginning of the end of the Anglo-US engagement in that country. The first event was the unexpected visit to the war-torn country by US President George W Bush, the American president’s third visit to Iraq. The second event was the pullback of British forces from Basra.

(Click on above link for the full story.)

Threats without borders

Claude Salhani
August 31, 2007

Addressing a gathering of some 200 French ambassadors gathered at the Elysee Palace last Monday, President Nicolas Sarkozy stressed the urgency of what he called "The first challenge" facing the West: How to prevent a confrontation with Islam.

"The threats we face today — terrorism, proliferation, crime — know no borders, warned the French president.

"There's no point in waffling: this confrontation is being called for by extremist groups such as al Qaeda that dream of establishing a caliphate from Indonesia to Nigeria, rejecting all openness, all modernity, every hint of diversity," said Mr. Sarkozy. "If these forces were to achieve their sinister objective, it is certain that the 21st century would be even worse than the last one, itself marked by merciless confrontation between ideologies."

(to view the full story click on the main title.)

With our computers frozen, would the U.S. still be a superpower? China intends to find out.

In this galaxy, in the not too distant future . . .

by Claude Salhani

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan demanded that the U.S. military focus its attention—and much of its research and development—on how best to respond to low-tech threats such as primitive improvised explosive devices. While the IEDs proved to be deadly for the troops of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq—the majority of casualties suffered were from exploding roadside bombs—the long-term effect they had on the American military was far more consequential. The real impact was felt only a few years later when the United States became involved in its next major conflict—with China.

(Click on the title to read the full story.)

The Iraq surge works

Commentary: The Iraq surge works

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR
Claude Salhani, Middle East Times
July 31, 2007

Two leading US scholars - and typically harsh critics of the administration - who have just returned from Iraq, say the surge of American forces there is working, but that more time is needed before the US starts to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

(to read more about Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack's report on Iraq click on above link.)

Cheney wants attack on Iran

By CLAUDE SALHANI

WASHINGTON, July 30 (UPI) –

There has been much speculation regarding the probability of U.S. and/or Israeli military strikes against Islamic republic's nuclear power sites before they become fully operational. But such a strike against Iran would unleash the tsunami-like force of millions in the Arab/Muslim world.

800 word click on the link to read the entire storyl

Is Al-Qaida making a comeback??

By CLAUDE SALHANI

U.S. intelligence officials have produced a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluding that the al-Qaida terrorist network is still a very potent enemy despite an all-out war waged against it almost everywhere in the world by the United States.

Click on above link to read the full story

Analysis: Soft partition of Iraq

By CLAUDE SALHANI
The partition of Iraq is being offered as an alternative for an otherwise failed policy on Iraq.

Letter from the Editor

Claude Salhani
Middle East Times
December 5, 2006

WASHINGTON -- The events that unfolded these past few days in the Lebanese capital leaves no doubt that Lebanon is sitting on the political equivalent of a rumbling volcano ready to erupt at a moment's notice.

(Click on above link to read full story.)

Politics & Policies: Three Mideast fires

By CLAUDE SALHANI
UPI International Editor

The Middle East is facing the danger of three civil wars erupting -- Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories.

(Click on title link to read full report.)

Live from Lebanon

by Claude Salhani

11.17.2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon.

In wake of the devastating war with Israel this summer, this pleasant strip of land on the eastern shores of the Mediterranean projects normality, with its fine restaurants and popular watering holes packed to the hilt every night. But with the rhetorical clashing between factions escalating by the day, there are fears that Lebanon could precipitously fall back into the abyss of the nightmarish days of the fifteen-year civil war. Some groups have delivered ominous threats that could prompt a shift from political to street sparring.

(Click on above link to read full story.)

Olmert's Secret Weapon: Prime Minister Deployed a Boomerang

by Claude Salhani

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In his bid to wipe out Hizballah in northern Lebanon, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert unsheathed his secret weapon: a precision-guided boomerang. This weapon certainly did cause massive destruction in Lebanon and then, with noted precision, wreaked damage upon its return to sender. Indeed, Olmert's foray into Lebanon may well cost him his job.

And Israel itself, as conventional wisdom has correctly had it, has also been damaged, in that an illusion of invincibility has been shattered. Of course, the Islamist victory in Lebanon builds on a succession of such triumphs, from Algeria to Somalia, and potentially in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But the chorus on the Lebanon conflict has failed to recognize the decent prospects for a successful multilateral peacekeeping operation in Lebanon. This is because, despite the reversals for Israel, each side has a modicum of victories to highlight--and defeats.

To read the full story click on the above headline, or go to http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=12058i

Copyright © 2006 The National Interest All rights reserved.

Politics & Policies: The world is one global village

What do illegal migrants from sub-Saharan Afriac have in common with Europeans living in Europe? AFar more than you think. (click on anove link for full story.)

Will redrawing the map of the Middle East end conflict?

Will redrawing the map of the Middle East end conflict?
BY CLAUDE SALHANI

13 July 2006

LT. COL. Ralph Peters published an article in the US’ Armed Forces Journal last month where he outlines his vision as to what is needed to solve the many woes — and wars — troubling the Greater Middle East: redraw the maps of most countries in the turbulent region, as Lt. Col. Peters (retired) would have it. In so doing, the face of the region as we know it today would change, thereby hopefully eradicating present day conflicts.

What Peters omits from his expose is that these changes would produce winners and losers, which in turn would be the genesis of newer conflicts.

Working from the assumption that "international borders are never completely just," Peters suggests major alterations. "Modern borders," says Peters, "have been the cause of injustice, oppression and atrocities." Peters starts with Israel: the Jewish state, he says, must abide by the demands it return to the pre-1967 lines, "if it hopes to ever live in peace."

Next he takes on Saudi Arabia: The kingdom stands to lose the most, according to the author’s plan. He advocates breaking it up into three parts. The Eastern province would be tied to the "Arab Shia State," composed of parts of southern Iraq and Iran — and bits of some of the other Gulf states. Rest assured, Peters leaves the UAE (and Oman) intact. It’s Yemen that wins big with large swathes of Saudi Arabia going its way. The second part of Saudi Arabia, the part comprising the holy cities of Makkah and Medina, would be shaped into what he calls the "Islamic Sacred State." Peters sees Saudi Arabia as "A root cause of the broad stagnation in the Muslim world."

The basis of Peters’ thesis is that today’s borders were "most arbitrary and distorted," which he claims were "drawn by self-interested Europeans (who have had sufficient trouble defining their own frontiers)." To those who think that borders are unchangeable, he offers this advice declaring "that boundaries must not change and that’s that, it pays to remember that boundaries have never stopped changing through the centuries. Borders have never been static," says Peters."Oh, and one other dirty little secret from 5,000 years of history: Ethnic cleansing works," adds the retired army officer. Look at the former Yugoslavia,

Then he comes to Iraq — "A Frankenstein’s monster of a state sewn together from ill-fitting parts." He adds, "the US and its coalition partners missed a glorious chance to begin to correct this injustice after Baghdad’s fall." According to Peters, "Iraq should have been divided into three smaller states." He says the United States "failed from cowardice and lack of vision, bullying Iraq’s Kurds into supporting the new Iraqi government — which they do wistfully as a quid pro quo for our good will."

He correctly states that should there be a free plebiscite to be held. “Make no mistake,” says Peters, "Nearly 100 per cent of Iraq’s Kurds would vote for independence.

The same goes for the Kurds of Turkey, whom Peters says "have endured decades of violent military oppression and a decades-long demotion to ‘mountain Turks’ in an effort to eradicate their identity." While the plight of the Kurds in Turkey "has eased somewhat over the past decade, the repression recently intensified again and the eastern fifth of Turkey should be viewed as occupied territory."

Peters sees the Kurds of Syria and Iran, rushing to join in forming an independent Kurdistan if they could.

In the new Middle East, according to Peters, "Iraq’s three Sunni-majority provinces might eventually choose to unify with a Syria that loses its littoral to a Mediterranean-oriented Greater Lebanon: Phoenicia reborn." "Correcting borders to reflect the will of the people may be impossible, for now. But given time — and the inevitable attendant bloodshed — new and natural borders will emerge. Babylon has fallen more than once."

True, but there is bound to be more bloodshed before any such changes take place, if they ever do. And more blood after these changes take place is sure to follow.

Claude Salhani is International Editor and a political analyst with United Press International in Washington. He may be contacted at Claude@upi.com

Iran, Syria fighting Israel by proxy militias

Iran, Syria use and abuse Lebanese militia... to fight Israel.

Illegal Immigration draws Africa closer to Europe

How do you stop the flow of millions of Africans from crossing the Sahara Desert as they try to make their way to Europe, via Morocco? Not through security measures alone," say officials.

Are Iran and Syria behind the latest Mideast escalation?

Israel is fighting on two fronts now -- Lebanon and Gaza -- in efforts to free its captured soldiers. The battle, however, could escalate to frightening proportions.

Illegal Immigration: Go North, young man

Millions of would-be African immigrants head north to Morocco every year, hoping to make it to Europe from here. Alas, many die along the way.

Despite ethnic killings, officials say still not civil war in Iraq

Officials in the Iraqi capital claim it is still not a civil war...despite the fact that masked gunmen pulled at least 40 Sunni Arabs from their houses, cafes, and cars and executed them in cold blood. Iraq's President Jalal Talabani said it brought the country to a "dangerous edge." I thought it was already there.

North Korea's bluff

The North Korea have gambled -- and lost. By firing their missiles the reclusive communist state we have convinced America's allies in the Pacific region of the need of a strong US presence.